Generally, the forex trader needs to anticipate the economic growth of the country or region associated with the currency. There are many locations to access up to date data on economic growth. Foremost among them is the central banks themselves. Once again, it is a question of timing. Economies move in cycles and take time to slow down or turn around. This is an area of great ambiguity for the forex trader. The trader has four decision rules:
1. Trade with the current economic cycle.
2. Trade a slowing down of economic growth.
3. Trade a stagnant economy.
4. Trade a growing economy.
If economic growth is projected to be slowing down, then the probability of the central bank’s increasing rates must be considered as declining. Central banks do not increase rates when growth is slowing down.
Also, the trader needs to consider the time frame for the option. The longer the time frame, the greater the risk of being wrong. But a longer time frame allows time for fundamentals to work out and express themselves in the price action. The forex option trader chooses a longer time frame to allow for countertrend moves to occur and then resume a fundamental direction. So, whether a forex option trade should be one week or several months is very much a judgment call. However, there are fundamental criteria for choosing a time of duration that should be considered. Depending on the economic conditions, forex option trades can range from very short term to longer term. Basically, a 3-month duration for an option trade will allow a reasonable period of time for fundamental forces
to express themselves.
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