Over last few weeks, some of the strongest behaving currencies have experienced measurable corrections against US Dollar. After marking all time highs, Euro pulled back about 700 pips and Swiss Franc bounced almost 1000 pips, Japanese Yen lost 900 pips. Even high yielding New Zealand Dollar slipped from a high of over 0.8200 to just above 0.7600. These currencies have joined British Pound and Canadian Dollar, which reached their respective highs last year.
Looks like all major currencies have undergone some correction, in cross trading with USD. There is one notable exception- Australian Dollar. Contrary to others, AUD not only didn't loss ground, but managed to reached a new multi year high. As of this writing, mid May 2008, AUD-USD is at about 0.9560. While this is not an all time high, it is a highest level seen since early 1980's, or 25 years.
Why is that? Why is AUD acting so strong and is it sustainable? We can always discuss high commodities prices, but most likely reason is interest rate differential. Australian Dollar is probably the last "carry trade" currently under way. Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark Cash Rate Target to 7.25% as recently as in March 2008. No other major central bank has done it this year. They are either cutting rates or staying put. Even Reserve Bank of New Zealand has not changed its rates since July 2007. Almost a year.
It is very unlikely, that Australian Central Bank will stay the course. One should expect a pause or even longer term halt in rates hike. No rate cuts are necessary, just a non action. Combined with projected softer prices of major commodities, that alone should be enough to see AUD retreat against USD and perhaps even all other majors. Especially if Crude Oil undergoes a long overdue price correction.
What is next? Should one go ahead and start shorting AUD? Not exactly. Picking the exact top ( or bottom for that matter) is considered by many a fool's game. We would expect to see some price acceleration just before the top. If recent moves in other currencies were any guide, we might witness 200-300 pips daily move to top off the run. With current quotes of over 0.9500, it's not out of realm of possibility to see a price spike to parity or close to. That is extremely important psychological level. Whatever the ultimate top, it might come as soon as 2-3 weeks from now.
Instead of guessing where the top might happen, it would be more productive to place sell order just under recent low. At this writing that level is around 0.9300. Should the up move continue, 4H chart will provide better entry points, more exact. Daily and weekly charts indicate a probable move to 0.8600-0.8500, taking 6-8 moths to complete. If during this time USD proves that its recent strength is for real, our down target will be farther revised.
Current situation is very interesting and potentially presenting great trading opportunity. Even perennial USD bears, as most people seem to be these days, should recognize, that in decade long moves, there is room to be profitable on both side of the market. This just might be one of these times.
About the Author
Mike P. Kulej is a Chief Forex Strategist for Spectrum Forex LLC. He specializes in mechanical trading systems as explained on www.spectrumforex.com . Spectrum Forex LLC offers numerous services to individual traders. With questions and comments e-mail him at kulej@spectrumforex.com.
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